If you plan to wait a few more years to have a child, count the woman's age first: around 40, the chance of conceiving without treatment and the success rate of in vitro fertilization both fall markedly
NewGrade ABig benefitLifespanFreeLittle timeSome willpower
The older the woman is, the harder it is to conceive without treatment. Just past 40, the chance of conceiving in a given month is only about half the chance just past 30. After a pregnancy starts, the share of pregnancies that miscarry also rises, to about a third at 40 to 44. Having the egg fertilized outside the body does not make up for that. At 43 and 44, only about 5% of embryo transfers end in a birth.
- Cost
- It costs no money. What it costs is 1 serious conversation. The hard part is putting having a child, work, and buying a home on the same timeline, instead of only pushing the birth later.
- Benefit
- For conceiving without treatment, a U.S. follow-up study looked at women aged 30 to 44, with no history of infertility, who had just started trying. Compared with ages 30 and 31, the chance of conceiving in a given month was about 53% lower at 40 and 41 (ratio 0.47, 95% CI 0.28-0.78), and about 59% lower at 42 to 44 (0.39, 0.16-0.93). At 38 and 39 it was about 30% lower (0.70, 0.48-1.01); the range just touches "no difference." Ages 32 and 33 did not differ from 30 and 31. Women who had never been pregnant had a lower chance at every age. In a similar Danish study, the chance for women aged 35 to 40 was 0.77 times the chance for women aged 20 to 24. The man's age matters much less: for men aged 35 to 39 the figure is 0.95. For miscarriage, Norwegian registry records of about 420000 pregnancies in 2009 to 2013 show the share was lowest at 25 to 29, at 9.8%. It was 10.8% at 30 to 34, 16.7% at 35 to 39, 32.2% at 40 to 44, and 53.6% at 45 and older. For the embryos' chromosomes, a U.S. fertility center tested 15169 in vitro fertilization embryos. Chromosomal abnormalities rose steadily with age after 26. Among people doing in vitro fertilization at 26 to 37, the share whose cultured embryos were all chromosomally abnormal was 2% to 6%; at 42 it was 33%, and at 44 it was 53%. For the success rate of in vitro fertilization, preliminary 2022 figures from the UK fertility regulator, using the woman's own eggs and a fresh embryo transfer, give the share of transfers that led to a birth as 35% at 18 to 34, 26% at 35 to 37, 18% at 38 and 39, 10% at 40 to 42, and 5% at 43 and 44. The domestic rule: the 2003 Ministry of Health Norms on Human Assisted Reproductive Technology state that it is "prohibited to provide human assisted reproductive technology to couples who do not meet the state population and family planning laws and regulations, or to single women." In 2024 the General Office of the State Council required localities to bring suitable assisted-reproduction procedures into yibao (医保 — basic medical insurance) reimbursement. In July 2025 the National Healthcare Security Administration said that all 31 provinces and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps had fully included assisted reproduction in reimbursement, and that in 2024 more than 1000000 person-times received the benefit.
- Notes
- This does not say who should have a child earlier or later. It only puts age on the table, next to the money account in item 5 and the time account in item 4. These are averages over a large group of people. For a particular person the gap can be large. To know your own situation, ask a reproductive clinic. A single woman cannot receive assisted reproductive technology at a regular hospital in China. Which in vitro fertilization items yibao reimburses, and how much, differs by province; ask the local healthcare security bureau. After you decide to have a child, what to do starts at Section 27, item 1 (take folic acid).
Sources · 8
- Steiner AZ, Jukic AM (2016). Impact of female age and nulligravidity on fecundity in an older reproductive age cohort. Fertility and Sterility 105(6):1584-1588. doi.org/10.1016/j.fertnstert.2016.02.028
- Rothman KJ 等 (2013). Volitional determinants and age-related decline in fecundability: a general population prospective cohort study in Denmark. Fertility and Sterility 99(7):1958-1964. doi.org/10.1016/j.fertnstert.2013.02.040
- Magnus MC 等 (2019). Role of maternal age and pregnancy history in risk of miscarriage: prospective register based study. BMJ 364:l869(表 1). doi.org/10.1136/bmj.l869
- Franasiak JM 等 (2014). The nature of aneuploidy with increasing age of the female partner: a review of 15,169 consecutive trophectoderm biopsies evaluated with comprehensive chromosomal screening. Fertility and Sterility 101(3):656-663. doi.org/10.1016/j.fertnstert.2013.11.004
- Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (2024). Fertility treatment 2022: preliminary trends and figures. hfea.gov.uk/about-us/publications/research-an…
- 卫生部 (2003). 人类辅助生殖技术规范(卫科教发〔2003〕176号附件,三、实施技术人员的行为准则第十三项). nhc.gov.cn/wjw/gfxwj/200309/8da11b0f3edb49cbb…
- 国务院办公厅 (2024). 关于加快完善生育支持政策体系推动建设生育友好型社会的若干措施(国办发〔2024〕48号). gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/202410/content_69834…
- 国务院新闻办公室 (2025). 国务院新闻办就育儿补贴制度及生育支持措施有关情况举行发布会(国家医保局待遇保障司负责人答问). gov.cn/zhengce/202507/content_7034595.htm