Look at the registration figures before listening to elders: what the marriage rate and divorce rate each mean

In 2024 there were 6106000 marriage registrations nationwide, down about one fifth from the year before, and 3513000 divorces. Online claims that the divorce rate is over half take these two numbers and divide them, about 57.5%. But the people divorcing and the people marrying are not the same group, so it cannot be read as half of marriages ending. The bulletin’s marriage rate of 4.3‰ and divorce rate of 2.5‰ are divided by the national population.

Cost

No money. Read the marriage-registration paragraph in the Ministry of Civil Affairs annual bulletin; a few minutes.

Benefit

In 2024, 6106000 couples completed marriage registration nationwide under law, down 20.5% from the previous year, with a marriage rate of 4.3‰. In the same year, 3513000 couples completed divorce procedures under law, of which 2622000 were divorce registrations at civil-affairs departments and 891000 were court judgments or mediated divorces. The divorce rate was 2.5‰. The bulletin notes that the marriage (divorce) rate = number of marriage (divorce) couples that year / average total population that year × 1000‰. This is a “crude rate”; the denominator is the whole population, not the married population.

Notes

The common online claim of a “divorce rate above 50%” divides that year’s divorce couples by that year’s marriage couples, 351.3 / 610.6 ≈ 57.5%. That is a “divorce-to-marriage ratio.” The two numbers are not the same people, and the bulletin has no such indicator, so it cannot be read as “half of marriages end.” To calculate “the probability that a marriage eventually ends in divorce,” you have to follow the same cohort of marriages over time; this section found no official data of that kind.

Sources · 1

1. 民政部 (2025). 2024 年民政事业发展统计公报（五（二）1 婚姻登记服务、注释 5），网页版与 PDF 版. mca.gov.cn/n1288/n1294/n1554/c166200499998000…、mca.gov.cn/gdnps/n2445/n2451/n2458/n2681/c166…