Don’t skip saving because “people can die any time, spending early is happier”; about nine in ten people aged 30 live to 60

By WHO figures for China, about 92% of people aged 30 live to 60, and over half live to 80. Young people commonly overestimate how likely they are to die early; living by that feeling, they save about a quarter less than they should. From the numbers above, most people need to save for living into old age.

Cost

No money. What to do when the thought “anyway I might be gone any day” appears is first recall your chance of living to 60. The hard part is everyone around saying that, and the thing you want to buy sitting in front of you.

Benefit

First how long people live. WHO’s Global Health Observatory computed a 2023 life table for China. A life table uses that year’s death rates by age to project how long a group lives. By that table, probability of a 30-year-old living to 60 is 92.0% (men 89.2%, women 94.9%). To 65: 87.4% (men 83.0%, women 92.0%). To 80: 55.6% (men 45.8%, women 66.1%). These three sets are ratios of numbers still alive at each age in the table. People who reach 65 have on average another 17.5 years. Next how people estimate. A 2019 Journal of Finance study surveyed people on how long they expect to live. Young people underestimate survival; older people overestimate. An earlier working-paper example: a 28-year-old man’s true 5-year survival was 99.4%; he estimated 92.8%. The authors put self-estimated probabilities into a standard life-cycle saving-and-spending model. Versus using actual death rates, young people save 26% less and retirees draw down savings 27% more slowly. People whose life-and-death estimates in the survey were more skewed also saved more skewed, after subtracting risk preference, cognition, and household conditions. The authors think one reason is overweighting rare, memorable ways of dying.

Notes

Reasons for grade B. The life table is a WHO model estimate, not a National Bureau of Statistics release. “Save 26% less” is from the model, not from following real people. Estimating lifespan is only one study; there is no citeable Chinese counterpart. “Most people need to save for living into old age” is the author’s inference from chances of reaching 60 and 80, not a study conclusion. Benefit magnitude set to medium, following Item 23 in this section (don’t expect shopping to improve mood). Under-saving may reach the 10000-yuan level, but there is no number for what it buys back, so it is not recorded as large. The same study also found older people overestimate how long they will live and draw savings too slowly, so this item is mainly for young and middle-aged people. This does not oppose spending on things and experiences you like; what to stop is the single reason “anyway I’ll die.” When accident or serious illness hits, what helps is an emergency fund and insurance — Section 5, Item 27 (emergency fund) and Section 5, Item 39 (insure losses you cannot carry). If someone lives on your income: Section 5, Item 40 (term life). Ordering when mood is low: Item 23 in this section. The beneficiary is you.

Sources · 4

1. World Health Organization, Global Health Observatory. Life tables: lx - number of people left alive at age x, China, 2023（指标 LIFE_0000000031）. ghoapi.azureedge.net/api/LIFE_0000000031?$fil…
2. World Health Organization, Global Health Observatory. Life tables: ex - expectation of life at age x, China, 2023（指标 LIFE_0000000035）. ghoapi.azureedge.net/api/LIFE_0000000035?$fil…
3. Heimer RZ, Myrseth KOR, Schoenle RS (2019). YOLO: Mortality Beliefs and Household Finance Puzzles. The Journal of Finance, 74(6), 2957-2996. doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12828
4. Heimer RZ, Myrseth KOR, Schoenle RS (2016). YOLO: Mortality Beliefs and Household Finance Puzzles. SSRN 工作稿（28 岁男性那个例子出自这一版）. doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2749543